Election-day results in the 2010 Toronto election – Part 1

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  • February 04, 2011

After leading in the polls since June, Ward 2 Councillor Rob Ford won handily on October 25, winning almost half of the vote citywide. In second place, about 11 points behind, was George Smitherman, former member of provincial parliament, senior cabinet minister, and, in the 1990s, chief of staff to ex-Toronto mayor Barbara Hall. Third-place finisher Joe Pantalone, long-time councillor and, in the last term of council, deputy mayor, won just under 12% of the vote. Other candidates, including several who had withdrawn but were still on the ballot, accounted for 5.5%.

Citywide results

As Table 1 shows, Ford performed slightly better in the advance polls than on election day.

Table 1: Citywide results

 

Advance Votes

Election Day

All Votes

Candidate

Votes

%

Votes

%

Votes

%

Ford

37,285

48.9%

346,216

46.9%

383,501

47.1%

Smitherman

25,850

33.9%

263,982

35.8%

289,832

35.6%

Pantalone

8,046

10.5%

87,436

11.9%

95,482

11.7%

Other

5,065

6.6%

40,104

5.4%

45,169

5.5%

Total

76,246

100.0%

737,738

100.0%

813,984

100.0%

Election day results by former Metro municipality

Although the six Metro municipalities no longer exist, they continue to matter as geographical markers. Figure 1 shows estimates of the election-day results broken out by former Metro municipality. (These are estimates because ward and VSD boundaries do not align with the borders of the former municipalities.) The analysis reveals that:

  • Ford carried every former Metro municipality except for the City of Toronto, which Smitherman won with 51% of the vote. Taken together, Ford won the former suburban municipalities with 56% of the vote.
  • Ford had significant support in the former City of Toronto (29%) while Smitherman had significant support in the former suburban municipalities (28%).
  • Almost half of Smitherman’s support (46%) came from voters in the former City of Toronto. Another third came from Scarborough and North York, with the remainder coming from Etobicoke and York.
  • Over 80% of Ford’s support came from outside the former City of Toronto. At the same time, over half of Smitherman’s and Pantalone’s total support came from outside the City of Toronto.

Figure 1: Election day results by former Metro municipality (estimate)

old_cities-colour

Percentages by candidate

Former City

Ford

Smitherman

Pantalone

Other

Total

Etobicoke

67,900

65%

24,500

23%

8,100

7%

4,400

4%

105,000

100%

East York

15,400

43%

14,000

39%

4,800

13%

2,000

6%

36,200

100%

North York

84,200

53%

47,000

29%

16,900

11%

11,300

7%

159,400

100%

Scarborough

92,800

57%

45,100

28%

13,600

8%

11,300

7%

162,700

100%

Toronto

67,600

29%

121,600

51%

38,400

16%

8,600

4%

236,200

100%

York

18,300

48%

11,800

31%

5,600

15%

2,500

7%

38,200

100%

Total

346,200

47%

264,000

36%

87,400

12%

40,100

5%

737,700

100%

Suburbs*

278,600

56%

142,400

28%

49,000

10%

31,500

6%

501,500

100%

Percentages by municipality

Former City

Ford

Smitherman

Pantalone

Other

Total

Etobicoke

67,900

20%

24,500

9%

8,100

9%

4,400

11%

105,000

14%

East York

15,400

4%

14,000

5%

4,800

5%

2,000

5%

36,200

5%

North York

84,200

24%

47,000

18%

16,900

19%

11,300

28%

159,400

22%

Scarborough

92,800

27%

45,100

17%

13,600

16%

11,300

28%

162,700

22%

Toronto

67,600

20%

121,600

46%

38,400

44%

8,600

21%

236,200

32%

York

18,300

5%

11,800

4%

5,600

6%

2,500

6%

38,200

5%

Total

346,200

100%

264,000

100%

87,400

100%

40,100

100%

737,700

100%

Suburbs*

278,600

80%

142,400

54%

49,000

56%

31,500

79%

501,500

68%

All values rounded to the nearest 100.

* Suburbs = former municipalities other than the former City of Toronto

Overall results by ward

Looking at the overall mayoral vote in each of the 44 wards, we see a stark divide between wards that supported Ford and those that supported Smitherman. Smitherman won all wards generally corresponding to the pre-amalgamation City of Toronto while Ford carried all of the outer wards. Pantalone did not win a single ward. (See Figure 2.) Each candidate’s support was strongest in their home base: the ward they represented or, in Smitherman’s case, his former provincial riding. Ford won with 80% in Ward 2, while Smitherman received about 60% in Wards 27 and 28. Pantalone’s best showing of 28% was on his home turf of Ward 19, although Smitherman beat him there by almost 20 points.

Figure 2: Winner of the mayoral vote, by ward

2010_wards-won_print

 

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